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RP GAMES The Resistance (beta 1.712)

Sasquatauch said:
Dain and bald came to me right away, they played around a little bit now I'm sure they're spies. Onewhoruns contacted me not long after and seemed pretty straight forward.
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Hey Thief, any chance that you could post the messages that i sent you. I'll give you some time to fabricate them... I'll be waiting.
 
Sasquatauch's team has been Approved!

Here are your votes:
PsionicFox: (✘)
dainjre: (✔)
Sasquatauch: (✔)
Otakebi: (✔)
Diremongoose: (✔)
Thief: (✔)
Keleynal: (✔)
Gyoin: (✔)
Baldoraxx: (✔)
OneWhoRuns: (✔)

The majority agreed with Sas's team pick.

Sasquatauch Keleynal Baldoraxx OneWhoRuns
I need the four of you to PM me your votes on the mission outcome.
 
Mission #3 fails!

Votes:
3 x Success
1 x Failure

Team: Sasquatauch (leader), Keleynal, Baldoraxx, OneWhoRuns

Current Score:
Spies: 2
Resistance: 1

Next team leader: Otakebi - pick five people for Mission #4!
Spies: Keep in mind that you need at least two fail votes to fail Mission #4!
 
Ok, we have all have a welcomed break to the game. Now to get back down to business. I had a feeling this would fail, but I passed the team due to not having hard evidence. Now my thoughts are, and have been for some time. Kel and Baldoraxx are the last 2 spies. Here is my reasoning.

Kel: He has been trying to hard too show he is resistance, and has been the most accusing out of everyone.
Baldoraxx: Has been quiet, and nearly all posts have been irrelevant to the game. Seems like he doesn't want the attention.

My gut instincts from the beginning was Fox is a spy, dire maybe, kel is, and I was unsure of last. Now with me being correct on the first 2, well atleast one, maybe one was trying to play the spys and Djanire was a spy I don't know 100%. But at the cost of 1 resistance member I will disregard all 3 to keep 2 spys out the game.

I need to hear peoples thoughts on the matter because this time we need 5 people!
 
This will be an easy win like I was tellin you Otakebi since spies need two votes to fail the mission. The challenge is going to come in mission 5.
 
Assuming you're right, then all the spies have been on at least one mission.

For two votes of fail to happen in the second mission after the addition of only one person. That means that either Otakebi was the second spy, or two of the original three members were the spies who voted for fail. Working on the assumption that I am a spy, then there's a 33.3% chance of guessing the second spy, just based on numbers. Keep in mind, I'm taking one assumption and then inferring other facts from that single point of data. I'm an obvious subject because I've been privately lying to people. But lets move on.

The spies need two NO votes to secure the win. That's probably unlikely to happen. Assuming my assessments have been true, there is one spy who has yet to act. To be safe, you remove all the people from mission two. Gyoin, Thief, and Otakebi have yet to be on missions. Based on my comments and assuming only two spies were operating in mission 2, there is a 33.3% chance of choosing a fifth member who is a spy along with whoever the spy was in mission 3. This also assumes that mission 3's roster had only one spy in it.

The statistically safest option is to choose one of those last members, and add them to the previous team as the fifth member.

May the odds be in your favour.
 
I still think Baldo is the most suspicious among the 3. Based on what I've heard, I suspect Thief to be the 3rd spy, with Dire and PF being spies 1 and 2.

I'd be in favor of switching in dainjre or Otakebi for Baldo and adding Gyoin. At worst, I believe this team would have 1 spy, but more likely to have none.
 
Adding Gyoin out of the remaining 3 people that haven't been on a mission is probably the safest choice for this mission. From previous post i get the consensus that most people trust him enough to put him in a mission and he has been pretty consistent with himself being a resistance member besides maybe a few sketchy situations. As far as replacing someone goes, i would not take anyone from the first two missions, i think that is just too risky to allow a possible spy into the mission; but if you are truly believe that thief is a spy. Then it looks like you will have too, and if I had to choose, i would probably choose Otakebi to replace someone. More than likely Baldo as Kel and Ota have suggested.
 
Hmm...Psionic actually makes sense there. The previous team probably only had one spy so if that's the case. My suggestion would be to avoid anyone from mission 2, because of the double-spy vote. If we play it safe this round we'll get to misison 5, which is the real challenge.

Otakebi will propose himself for this mission - that makes sense if he's resistance (and from his own point of view, whichever side he's on), but I believe him to be a spy based on my interactions with him and Psionic, so I will to oppose any mission with him on.
 
Diremongoose said:
Otakebi will propose himself for this mission - that makes sense if he's resistance (and from his own point of view, whichever side he's on), but I believe him to be a spy based on my interactions with him and Psionic, so I will to oppose any mission with him on.
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Dire wants this Mission party voted down before he even hears the make-up. Why? Because he and Thief have the next 2 team picks. We will need to veto both of those teams since Dire is a spy, and based on Thief's actions, it's very likely he is one as well.

I don't know yet if I will vote for Otakebi's team or not. I do know that if we get past Dire and Thief, Gyoin and/or I will have picks, and that will put the Resistance in a much stronger position.
 
Hah, I was actually in accurate.It slipped my mind that Otakebi was the 4th member of mission 2. So if Otakebi includes himself on the team, there's a 33.3% chance he's a spy is we still assume that I am one.

Do you risk it? I wouldn't.
 
I have been quiet because i want to see the moves that the other players make and analyse them so i can better help the team. I am kinda pulling towards Sasquatch as the spy for the last mission. I let him know i want to sit back and analyse the situation before i had to go into a mission, why was i picked? Unless he didn't trust me or know i was a resistance member and wanted to throw the blame in my direction.

(sorry for the low responses, i have been fighting to try and even get to the Tab website. This is the first time all weekend that it has let me on, i dont know how long it will let me stay on)
 
PsionicFox said:
Hah, I was actually in accurate.It slipped my mind that Otakebi was the 4th member of mission 2. So if Otakebi includes himself on the team, there's a 33.3% chance he's a spy is we still assume that I am one.

Do you risk it? I wouldn't.
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If we assume that you're a spy, we don't take your advice. If we assume you aren't a spy, then Ota has a much higher chance of being one. The first game I played, I went against my intuition and it cost the Resistance the game. I'm sticking to my gut this time: You and Dire are spies for sure. Thief is highly likely. I suspect Baldo, but can't be sure. From what I've seen of Gyoin, I'm confident he's Resistance. OneWhoRuns and Sasq don't have enough data for me to say either way, but I find them much less suspicious than Baldo and Thief. Ota and dainjre, I lean towards being Resistance. I feel better about those 2 than OneWhoRuns and Sasq.

Listed in liklihood of being spies:
Dire, PF- 99%
Thief- 80%
Baldo- 65%
OneWhoRuns, Sasq- 50%
dainjre, Ota- 30%
Gyoin- 10%
Kel- 0%

I won't support a team with anyone on it with a liklihood greater than 50%.
 
But kel... I hate to point this out but you have 4 people under 50% and we are gonna have to run missions with 5 people.
 
dainjre said:
But kel... I hate to point this out but you have 4 people under 50% and we are gonna have to run missions with 5 people.
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I said no one GREATER than 50%, which gives a pool of 6 people. You could even exclude me. Since this mission takes 2 fail votes, I'd approve it since the liklihood of BOTH sasq and OneWhoRuns being spies is very slim.
 
Keleynal said:
If we assume that you're a spy, we don't take your advice. If we assume you aren't a spy, then Ota has a much higher chance of being one.
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I was talking in the purest mathematical sense. I wasn't allowing my emotions to get in the way. The only reason I'm comfortable giving an example where I'm a spy is that I'm not a spy. Otherwise my words would simply seem to reveal me as a spy. My math holds up no matter which member of team 2 you lock down as a definite spy.

Assume you had the power to know who one of the spies from mission 2 is. Not a guess, not 99% sure, but KNOW. With that single point of data, the rest becomes a purely mathematical game.
 
PsionicFox said:
I was talking in the purest mathematical sense. I wasn't allowing my emotions to get in the way. The only reason I'm comfortable giving an example where I'm a spy is that I'm not a spy. Otherwise my words would simply seem to reveal me as a spy. My math holds up no matter which member of team 2 you lock down as a definite spy.

Assume you had the power to know who one of the spies from mission 2 is. Not a guess, not 99% sure, but KNOW. With that single point of data, the rest becomes a purely mathematical game.
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Other than being a spy, there's no way to know 100% sure. I've explained why you are Dire are spies. If you did KNOW that someone other than yourself was a spy, there'd be no reason to keep that to yourself or in PM.

I'm not going to make assumptions or math problems assuming I'm a spy, there's no value in startng from a false premise.
 
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