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Hurricane Sandy... Fellow East Coasters..

tr1age

tr1age

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Uhm... crap?

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Hurricane Sandy — continuing to head north and lashing the Bahamas tonight with 105 mph winds — could set a “historical precedent” along the East Coast, forecasters warn, if the worst were to happen early next week.
This October surprise mixes a cold front coming in from the west, Arctic air coming down from the north, a jet stream that will “capture” the storm, a full moon, plenty of leaves on the trees — and a wind-whipping, wave-crashing Sandy.
It could all add up to $1 billion in damage, experts fear. And, this "left-hooking" storm could hit Boston, according to one of many models. All boaters, big and small, are being urged to pull into port by Saturday, with 25- to 30-foot waves forecast out in the ocean.
“This is a very serious, powerful storm,” said meteorologist Charlie Foley with the National Weather Service in Taunton. “It has the potential to cause the loss of life.”
The Category 2 hurricane has also spawned a hash tag on Twitter — #SANDY — that is taking off. The National Weather Service baptized it the "Frankenstorm" via a tweet.
The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration is comparing Sandy to the Great Gale of 1878 and Hurricane Hazel in 1954.
The Great Gale of 1878 was a Category 2 hurricane that left damage in its wake from Cuba to New England — and is the worst hurricane to ever hit the Washington-Baltimore region since hurricane records began in 1851.
Hurricane Hazel killed 1,000 people in Haiti before striking the United States near the border between North and South Carolina, killing 95 people, records state. Another 81 died in Canada, mostly in Toronto.
Hurricane Sandy is an unusual mix of a hurricane and a winter storm. The worst of it could plow into New York City and New Jersey.
Forecasters said there’s a 90 percent chance that the East Coast will get steady gale-force winds, flooding, heavy rain and maybe snow starting Sunday and stretching past Wednesday.
“It’s almost a weeklong, five-day, six-day event,” said NOAA forecaster Jim Cisco. “We don’t have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting.”
The hurricane part of the storm is likely to come ashore somewhere in New Jersey on Tuesday morning.
Yet, the National Weather Service is warning “there is continued low certainty with several days to go before being impacted by this system. Numerous possibilities remain on the table.”
Foley added a high pressure area over Greenland cannot be ignored either — because it is acting as a “red light” turning Sandy away from the open ocean and right at us.
 
Folks out on the East coast of the United States and Canada are bracing themselves for what could be a remarkably severe storm, one that has been dubbed 'Frankenstorm' on account of its tripartite composition. The mega-storm is expected to make landfall early next week just as three major weather systems collide — including Hurricane Sandy which is currently ravaging parts of the Caribbean. Here's what you need to know about the storm of the year.
What is it?
The Frankenstorm, which got its name from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationforecaster Jim Cisco, will be the result of three major weather systems coming together.

The primary engine fueling the storm will be the remnants of Hurricane Sandy, a Category 2 storm that is currently making life miserable in Haiti and Cuba. Once it makes its way up the East coast, it will be reinvigorated by an early winter storm coming in from the West, and a blast of arctic air from the North.

And as if to add insult to injury, the storm will co-incide with a full moon — a time when tides are at their highest. Government meteorologists say there's a 90% chance that the storm will hit as predicted, up from 60% two days ago.
Speaking to the AP, Cisco noted, "We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting." He worries that it could be historic in terms of its scope and the damage it may inflict.
Where and when will it hit?
​
The storm will have an impact on coastal areas ranging from Florida to the Canadian Maritime provinces, but the full force of its effects will be felt in New Jersey and New York City. It's expected to reach these areas on Sunday October 28, with the brunt of it hitting on Tuesday October 30.
And the storm could linger. Meteorologists are worried that it could stall and batter the area for as much as five to six days, not leaving until some time around November 1 or 2.
How serious will it be?
Extremely serious. This is an unprecedented storm for which the models are predicting some fairly serious effects. Coastal areas can expect gale-force winds, heavy rain, extreme tides, flooding, and possibly snow.
Experts predict it could cause as much as $1 billion in damages.
Writing in the Weather Underground blog, Jeff Masters had this to say:


Landfall Monday along the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, would likely be a billion-dollar disaster. In this scenario, Sandy would be able to bring sustained winds near hurricane force over a wide stretch of heavily populated coast, causing massive power outages, as trees still in leaf fall and take out power lines. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. Fresh water flooding from heavy rains would also be a huge concern. Given the ECMWF's consistent handling of Sandy, I believe this mid-Atlantic scenario has a higher probability of occurring than the Northeast U.S. scenario. However, it is likely that the models are overdoing the strength of Sandy at landfall. The models have trouble handling the transition from tropical storm to extratropical storm in these type of situations, and I expect that the 940 mb central pressure of Sandy predicted at landfall Monday in Delaware by the ECMWF model is substantially overdone.​
And indeed, many districts are already preparing.
New York's Mayor Michael Bloomberg has opened an emergency situation room and activated its coast storm plan. Jersey Central Power & Light has told its employees to prepare for extended shifts. Utilities have been in contact with out-of-state work crews in anticipation of needing assistance, and canceling employees' days off. And President Barack Obama is receiving regular updates.
How can I keep track?
If you're in an area scheduled to get hit, stay tuned to your local weather forecasts. And you might just want to put some fresh batteries in your transistor radio in case the power goes out. You can also follow updates at the National Weather Service website or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
 
Yeah they are saying its going to be another perfect storm type deal. Its in the middle of my work week so I expect I will have to drive over a few trees on the way to work. Everyone on the east coast stock up on water, food n batteries if you havent already.
 
Wow, good luck guys, living in Houston I know what its like to go through this. I hope everyone makes it out with as little damage as possible.
 
Good explanation of it

Isn't it strange that a hurricane in the Bahamas would somehow turn into a monster mega-storm and slam into the Northeast at the end of October? Aren't hurricanes supposed to weaken as they move north over cold water? What the hell is going on?

The answers are... yes, yes, and we're not completely sure. This is a beyond-strange situation. It's unprecedented and bizarre. Hurricanes almost always bend out to sea in October, although there have been some exceptions when storms went due north, but rarely. No October tropical systems in the record book have turned left into the northeast coast.

The strong evidence we have that a significant, maybe historic, storm is going to hit the east coast is that EVERY reliable computer forecast model now says it's going to happen. The only way we can forecast the weather four or five days days from now is with the aid of these super-complex computer programs run on supercomputers. The two best, the European and the U.S. GFS (Global Forecast System) run by NOAA, are now in reasonable agreement that there IS going to be an extraordinarily unusual confluence of events that results in a massive storm.

The upper-air steering pattern that is part of the puzzle is not all that unheard of. It happens when the atmosphere gets blocked over the Atlantic and the flow over the U.S. doubles back on itself. Sometimes big winter storms are involved.

The freak part is that a hurricane happens to be in the right place in the world to get sucked into this doubled-back channel of air and pulled inland from the coast.

And the double-freak part is that the upper level wind, instead of weakening the storm and simply absorbing the moisture - which would be annoying enough - is merging with the tropical system to create a monstrous hybrid vortex. A combination of a hurricane and a nor'easter.

At least that's what the models are saying. And since all of the independent models are saying something similar, we have to believe them and be ready.

For most people being ready means getting to the store and getting stuff before everybody else gets wise and gets the stuff first. The forecast is for an incredibly widespread and long-duration windstorm, meaning power will likely be out for an extended period of time in a lot of locations.

A transistor radio is your best friend in a situation like this. Get one and enough batteries to keep it going. Your cell phone may or may not be your friend after a big storm.

For people near the coast, it's critical that you pay attention to local evacuation orders and emergency information. This storm, as forecast, will create dangerous and potentially life-threatening storm surge along hundreds of miles of coastline north of where the center comes ashore. Big storms move a lot of water, and this one is about as big as they come.

Right now, it looks like the storm center will land between the Delmarva and New Jersey, which would put the entire Tri-State area of NJ, NY, and Connecticut on the bad side of the storm. The Jersey Shore, Long Island, and New York City itself would be exposed to the brunt of the storm surge due to the "L" in the coastline at NYC. The angle and duration of the wind will keep the water high for an extended period of time, if this comes together as forecast. This means transportation disruptions and widespread coastal damage.

If the storm comes in farther south, the Delmarva, Delaware Bay and maybe the Chesapeake will be at risk. A storm the size that's forecast would cause problems throughout New England as well, even if the center is south of New York. And then there is the threat from flooding rain and the extremely heavy snow well inland.

To make all this worse along the coast, the moon is full on Monday, meaning the high tides will be higher yet.

The hope we have is that the computer models are not handling this unusual situation well, and are predicting a stronger storm than we get. But, we can't bet of it. Even a weaker version will likely mean a nightmare for millions.
 
Ugh. Sounds like a mess. I wonder if I should invest in that generator purchase that I've been putting off for years...
 
If I disappear next week, you'll know why. *ponyhuh:
I'm wondering if ANet will extend the Halloween event if tons of people are out of power. XD
Wish I had a generator for my computer!

Hope everyone gets through it safely!
 
As of early Sunday morning it looks like the center is going to hit over central/southern NJ. Going to be a lot of sustained high winds and rain. The storm is expected to linger which will extend everything. Everyone here on the East Coast stay safe, be smart, and if you haven't already stock up on the important stuff today.<3
 
Stocked up, ready to go! Wunderground is actually telling me it's going to snow in NoVA on Tuesday 0_o. This shall be interesting. Stay safe.
 
Best of luck to you guys. I'll be hoping that everyone stays safe and internet connections remain at full strength.
 
holy crap people. its looking worse and worse. almost 400k people told to evacuate.

and rux be careful its heading right for ya.
 
Yeah, they just sent out an office closure email for tomorrow as well (they sent it early since power is predicted to go out this evening). I've got like 7 weather alerts in my town alone right now, and I'm south of where it's going to technically come ashore.. They're saying 25-40mph sustained winds here for 24 HOURS, with gusts to hurricane strength, an I'm well inland. It's just a huge storm.. Definitely not to be messed with, be careful!

Embedding T1Gs link, thanks!
 
Things just started picking up here. I woke up this morning to see that my classes were cancelled today only to look outside and see absolutely nothing.

Now not so much. It's cool watching the rain fly all over the place, though.
Edit: Actually it's not so cool anymore.
 
Curtech said:
Things just started picking up here. I woke up this morning to see that my classes were cancelled today only to look outside and see absolutely nothing.

Now not so much. It's cool watching the rain fly all over the place, though.
Edit: Actually it's not so cool anymore.
Click to expand...
MBTA is shutting down in 10 minutes. Careful
 
It's picking up here as well (RI). Only a couple of gusts so far, but some of the fence fell over and..
the internet keeps going out.

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THE. WORST. POSSIBLE. THING.
 
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