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RP GAMES The Resistance (beta 1.712)

Diremongoose said:
This is where the game gets messy. Random chance gives us a 60% win chance, but the likelihood of the group accepting a random team is very low as certain individuals are sure in their accusations of others (myself included). I don't have any good strategy for this one but, sorry Thief, I still think you're a spy. Don't pick yourself.
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60% at random? I'm horrible at math, but that doesn't sound right at all.

The first person you randomly choose out of a pool of 10 has a 60% chance of being Resistance. The second person has either a 55.56% or 66.67% chance depending on whether the first was a spy or not. But we can ignore that since even 1 spy being chosen is too much. So the chance or randomly picking the correct people is 60%, 55.56%, 50%, 42.86%, and 33.33% for each successive pick. The chance of picking a spy is the inverse, or 40%, 45%, 50%, 57%, and 67%. In other words, a random team is a BAD idea. It actually gives the SPIES a 67%+ chance of winning.
 
Holy shit this just got interesting lol... Im on my phone looking at apartments right now so I'll have to read all this later: however what I need from everyone is a list of who you'd like to see on this next mission. DO NOT. Pm me, I will post all PM's sent to me and I will not reply. Post everything publicly on here for everyone to see. When I get home I'll review everything and look at the statistics since I think we've had 4 spies now. Please post as much as possible everyone. This is for all the marbles
 
Actually...

The numbers are astronomically in favor of spies in a random picking. In a blind pick, do actually pick 5 resistance out of 10 members, 4 of which being spies, it's 2.381%.

(6/10)*(5/9)*(4/8)*(3/7)*(2/6)= (720/30,240)= (1/42) = .02380952

But.... The information at hand is what we have to make the BEST EDUCATED GUESS at who is and isn't a spy. And even assuring just one resistance member increases the odds drastically. By me just saying I'm a resistance member the entire game and doing nothing but support apparently hasn't gained the trust of everyone.

When I have more time to decipher the information at hand, I'll try to come back with some more definitive number crunching.
 
Gyoin said:
Actually...

The numbers are astronomically in favor of spies in a random picking. In a blind pick, do actually pick 5 resistance out of 10 members, 4 of which being spies, it's 2.381%.

(6/10)*(5/9)*(4/8)*(3/7)*(2/6)= (720/30,240)= (1/42) = .02380952

But.... The information at hand is what we have to make the BEST EDUCATED GUESS at who is and isn't a spy. And even assuring just one resistance member increases the odds drastically. By me just saying I'm a resistance member the entire game and doing nothing but support apparently hasn't gained the trust of everyone.

When I have more time to decipher the information at hand, I'll try to come back with some more definitive number crunching.
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I'm not smart enough to know that, but Dire is. As if we needed any more proof of his spyfulness.
 
On further review, I do believe it is more likely that Sasq is the spy, rather than Baldo.

Although both were on missions with 1 fail vote, Sasq has been the most contrary towards Gyoin and myself. He also was the only one of the 2 to receive my trap message, making him the more likely to be the spy that foolishly voted fail last mission.

That would mean Dire, PsionicFox, Sasquatach, and Thief are the spies.

Dainjre is my wild child. If I'm somehow horribly wrong about Dire or PF, he's the one I'm also wrong about.

Thief - this is the decision you asked for.
 
nixon.jpg
 
Gyoin, let me know when you can get some Math up in here... I prefer statistics over mindless finger pointing games.

Kel, lemme know when you decide on your 5th
 
Yes, you guys are right on the maths I apologise for that grossly misleading over simplification. It seems obvious now...[DOUBLEPOST=1377214099,1377213860][/DOUBLEPOST]And yes, Gyoin has used a correct method to determine the probability.[DOUBLEPOST=1377214405][/DOUBLEPOST][DOUBLEPOST=1377214971][/DOUBLEPOST]Kel has eliminated half the team with spy accusations and one possible. I think Otakebi should also be on the list, instead of me, but otherwise I agree. That would be my list.
 
Sorry dire, unless like everyone else votes you on... You won't be on my team hah, I'm sure you can understand

Thanks Kel
 
Thief said:
Sorry dire, unless like everyone else votes you on... You won't be on my team hah, I'm sure you can understand

Thanks Kel
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I do understand Thief, but if somehow you are also resistance, you also understand you can't go on this mission just as I couldn't go on mine. Hell, if you're the spy I suspect you to be you can't go on this mission either :p

Nevertheless, with only one spy needed to fail the mission, I must vote against a mission with Otakebi.

Kel, you've been doing all the right things but your conclusions are wrong about me. We can afford only one 'false' spy accusation on this mission, use it well.
 
Sorry, Dire, but I'm not going to flip on my feelings about you. The last time I changed my mind about someone I was very certain was a spy a certain tr1age stole victory away from me. This time, I'm not listening to the sweet talk.
 
Fair enough Kel, but you can't deny my reasons for suspecting Thief and Otakebi either. Given my experiences this game my accusations are both logical and consistent, even as you accuse me for similar reasons.
 
Alright, This is what I see.
Mission 1, No info.
Mission 2, half of the total spies were in this mission. I'll say this again, I don't think it's Otakebi people have jumped on this banned wagon aswell from Dire's accusations but I'm not going for it. Dire is trying so hard to toss the title of Spy to other people to divert from himself. So from Mission 2 I vote Otakebi being the safest bet.
Mission 3, Another, 3rd spy had shown himself leaving only 1 more unknown spy.
Mission 4, So what did Dire cleverly do.... I wish I was paying more attention before to have realized but he voted in the same exact team adding Gyoin. Being suspicious of Kel, I think Kel noticed this and decided to PM all of the members to vote fail, knowing that there was another spy within the team. Unfortunately for Kel, the spy from Mission 3 decided to play it safe and did not vote fail with him. Or maybe, Kel's mistake of mistyping Baldo's name cost him.
Mission 5, So that leaves us with mission 5. Otakebi will be on my list as I trust him, I also trust Sasquatach, Gyoin is also high on my trust list, Onewhoruns seems to pass through a majority and that leaves the 5th and final member. I'm going to have to choose myself as the road to the safest victory.


Thief's Mission 5 members

Otakebi
Sasquatach
Gyoin
Onewhoruns
Thief
 
Reasons not to trust Thief:

Thief said:
I just wanted to say good luck to the 5 other resistance members and to the 3 other spies playing the game.
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Said in jest, but a bloody stupid thing for an actual resistance member to say

Thief said:
In my opinion there is no wrong move in this game.

Take him for an example, say he was resistance and the vote failed and he became marked as a spy. Other spies might be more inclined to reach out to him since the spies do not know one another. He could then take that information and help the resistance if someone was still willing to trust him. (In other words he would become a spy working for the resistance and spying on the spies.) The game is all about trust to me.
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and

Thief said:
Can all the spies message me please and tell me that you're a spy. It would be greatly appreciated!
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and

Thief said:
You'd be surprised to know who all has sent PMs to me after I requested the spies to PM me.... very interesting. No data will be shared yet while the game is still going well.
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Why did you never share this supposed information? Is the game still going well Thief? Is it really? For the spies, it certainly is. If you DID share the info privately, who received it? Why was it not public knowledge?

Thief said:
Guys, I already know all of the spies. Remember I asked them to send me a pm telling me that they're spies. We have Matt Damon, Mike Myers, Sean Connery, and Tom Cruise. Angelina Jolie is iffy.
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As I mentioned at the time this is a content-free post neither explaining if he actually got any PMs in response or adding anything useful to the discussion while appearing 'active'.

Thief said:
I also trust PF/Gyoin the most, interesting information on DM. However is sounds so sticky that I feel he could still be with us and just trying too hard to find spies. I will agree with Kel in that I won't pass a mission with Dainjre either; still sceptical about DM, especially since he definitely trying way too hard to accuse me when I've never even been on a mission.
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See the above, how is any sensible person expected to react? You are either an obvious spy or a terrible resistance member.
 
Theif's team goes with exactly what I think.

Spies are Dire, PF, Kel, Bald. Also due to round 1 I cant rule out Djainre but as said before 1 resistance member for stopping 2 spies is worth it.

Dire you have thrown Thief under the bus from the beginning! Someone feeling insecure? Especially considering you are a very very high chance of being a spy...
 
Otakebi said:
Theif's team goes with exactly what I think.

Spies are Dire, PF, Kel, Bald. Also due to round 1 I cant rule out Djainre but as said before 1 resistance member for stopping 2 spies is worth it.

Dire you have thrown Thief under the bus from the beginning! Someone feeling insecure? Especially considering you are a very very high chance of being a spy...
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Throw him under a bus? Just look at what he's written on his own, with no prompting from others!

You have an equally high chance of being a spy as I do, so come down from your high horse and try and realise how you look to everyone else. Can't you see why your inclusion alone is too high risk, never mind Thief?
 
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