Source:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/1ah849/i_spent_3162250_karma_and_ended_up_opening_2069/
I spent 3,162,250 karma and ended up opening 2069 Orrian Jewelry boxes.
Charged lodestone: 9 (25.25 gold) .43% drop rate
Crystal Lodestone: 13 (5 gold) .63% drop rate
Destroyer Lodestone: 9 (8.5 gold) .43% drop rate
Glacial Lodestone: 8 (3.2 Gold) .39% drop rate
Molten Lodestone: 8 (4.5 Gold) .39% drop rate
Onyx Lodestone: 11 (15.75 Gold) .53% drop rate
Pile of putrid Essence: 8 (4 Silver) .39% drop rate
Unidentifiable Object: 6549 (32.75 gold) 317% drop rate
Warm Potion: 0
Hard Potion: 0
Charged potion: 1 (1 gold)
Cold potion: 1 (30 silver)
Obsidian Shard: 318 (unprofitable) 15.4% drop rate
Mini Priest: 25 (unprofitable) 1.2% drop rate
Starting boxes: 540 corrected
Total boxes: 2069
Liquid karma multiplier: 1.95
Total profit: 96.62.23 (Gold.silver.copper)
Profit/Initial 1000 Karma: 0.03.89 (Gold.silver.copper) corrected
So a few notes. I maintained a +95% karma boost at all times. I started with 695 boxes (about 3.16 million karma's worth) and used all of the liquid karma they dropped with the karma boost and spent all the remaining karma on more boxes. I repeated this process until deplete of karma opening a total of 2069 boxes.
The drop rates are on a per box basis. In other words you will get 3.17 Unidentifiable Objects per box on average. If we assume lodestones all share an equal drop rate, we can average the lodestone drop rate and say that we get about .46% drop chance per box for each type of lodestone.
All profit was calculated with the following method. I checked the TP at about noon yesterday and recorded the lowest sell prices for each item. The sell prices were multiplied by .85 and rounded down to the nearest copper to account for TP taxes. This price was then multiplied by the number of the relevant item drops. Unidentifiable objects were exempt from this method sense they are just vendor trash.
Profit/per initial 1000 karma allows one to get an estimate of the total profit one can attain by spending x karma under the conditions that they also maintain a 95% karma boost, consume all liquid karma dropped from the boxes, buy as many boxes as possible with consumed karma, and repeat the process.
This process took me 24 iterations to complete. The number of boxes consumed in each iteration is as follows: 486, 359, 272, 199, 134, 110, 74, 54, 51, 34, 23, 15, 14, 10, 6, 5, 3, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1 As well as 209 boxes opened across seperate characters whose liquid karma was used to start the initial 486 boxes.
I haven't seen any drop research of this magnitude so I thought I would help the community out. The reason I didn't simply post this to the wiki drop research page is because their directions state to only contribute IF a drop happened instead of how many drops happened (so if box drops 20 piles, only record 1). Looking at individual entires it seems that some people followed the rules while others did not, making the collection invalid in any case. I find that type of research non-beneficial to most people so I shall not contribute.
Edit:
Looking over the data, I messed up the profit/intial 1k karma spent. I added together the 209 boxes with the initial 486 but forgot to subtract the liquid karma I got from the 209 boxes. Good news, however. 1) The profit/karma ratio is actually higher since I spent less karma than I thought and 2) I video captured the whole thing so I can go back and get the figures adjusted appropriately.
Corrected. Initial karma spent on boxes opened was only 540x4550 (2,457,000). Total boxes remains the same while initial boxes has been corrected to 540. New profit/initial 1k karma is 3 silver 89 copper.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/1ah849/i_spent_3162250_karma_and_ended_up_opening_2069/
I spent 3,162,250 karma and ended up opening 2069 Orrian Jewelry boxes.
Charged lodestone: 9 (25.25 gold) .43% drop rate
Crystal Lodestone: 13 (5 gold) .63% drop rate
Destroyer Lodestone: 9 (8.5 gold) .43% drop rate
Glacial Lodestone: 8 (3.2 Gold) .39% drop rate
Molten Lodestone: 8 (4.5 Gold) .39% drop rate
Onyx Lodestone: 11 (15.75 Gold) .53% drop rate
Pile of putrid Essence: 8 (4 Silver) .39% drop rate
Unidentifiable Object: 6549 (32.75 gold) 317% drop rate
Warm Potion: 0
Hard Potion: 0
Charged potion: 1 (1 gold)
Cold potion: 1 (30 silver)
Obsidian Shard: 318 (unprofitable) 15.4% drop rate
Mini Priest: 25 (unprofitable) 1.2% drop rate
Starting boxes: 540 corrected
Total boxes: 2069
Liquid karma multiplier: 1.95
Total profit: 96.62.23 (Gold.silver.copper)
Profit/Initial 1000 Karma: 0.03.89 (Gold.silver.copper) corrected
So a few notes. I maintained a +95% karma boost at all times. I started with 695 boxes (about 3.16 million karma's worth) and used all of the liquid karma they dropped with the karma boost and spent all the remaining karma on more boxes. I repeated this process until deplete of karma opening a total of 2069 boxes.
The drop rates are on a per box basis. In other words you will get 3.17 Unidentifiable Objects per box on average. If we assume lodestones all share an equal drop rate, we can average the lodestone drop rate and say that we get about .46% drop chance per box for each type of lodestone.
All profit was calculated with the following method. I checked the TP at about noon yesterday and recorded the lowest sell prices for each item. The sell prices were multiplied by .85 and rounded down to the nearest copper to account for TP taxes. This price was then multiplied by the number of the relevant item drops. Unidentifiable objects were exempt from this method sense they are just vendor trash.
Profit/per initial 1000 karma allows one to get an estimate of the total profit one can attain by spending x karma under the conditions that they also maintain a 95% karma boost, consume all liquid karma dropped from the boxes, buy as many boxes as possible with consumed karma, and repeat the process.
This process took me 24 iterations to complete. The number of boxes consumed in each iteration is as follows: 486, 359, 272, 199, 134, 110, 74, 54, 51, 34, 23, 15, 14, 10, 6, 5, 3, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1 As well as 209 boxes opened across seperate characters whose liquid karma was used to start the initial 486 boxes.
I haven't seen any drop research of this magnitude so I thought I would help the community out. The reason I didn't simply post this to the wiki drop research page is because their directions state to only contribute IF a drop happened instead of how many drops happened (so if box drops 20 piles, only record 1). Looking at individual entires it seems that some people followed the rules while others did not, making the collection invalid in any case. I find that type of research non-beneficial to most people so I shall not contribute.
Edit:
Looking over the data, I messed up the profit/intial 1k karma spent. I added together the 209 boxes with the initial 486 but forgot to subtract the liquid karma I got from the 209 boxes. Good news, however. 1) The profit/karma ratio is actually higher since I spent less karma than I thought and 2) I video captured the whole thing so I can go back and get the figures adjusted appropriately.
Corrected. Initial karma spent on boxes opened was only 540x4550 (2,457,000). Total boxes remains the same while initial boxes has been corrected to 540. New profit/initial 1k karma is 3 silver 89 copper.